Cardano (ADA) surged past $1.30 in December 2024, marking a strong year-end performance. However, the rally was short-lived, as ADA has been on a steady downtrend since, currently trading around $0.66—a 45% drop from its local peak, according to CoinGecko. This recent performance has cast doubt on optimistic Cardano price prediction 2025 models, prompting analysts to reassess ADA’s short- to mid-term potential.
Technical analyst Ali Martinez attributes the decline to a rejection at the upper boundary of a descending channel that’s been in play for over six months. Martinez warns that if bearish pressure persists, ADA could fall further to $0.63 or even $0.54. A failed breakout attempt at the $0.74 resistance level last week—where ADA was briefly priced at $0.72—adds weight to this bearish case.
Yet, the bullish scenario isn’t off the table.
In April, whale wallets accumulated over 410 million ADA tokens—roughly $270 million worth—signaling long-term confidence. Historically, such moves by large investors often precede price recoveries, with retail traders usually following suit. Additionally, ADA's Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above 30, hinting at a potential reversal from oversold conditions.
Optimism around a possible Cardano ETF further fuels bullish expectations, with some eyeing a $2 peak during the upcoming altcoin season.
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Still, caution is warranted. Coinglass data shows a bearish funding rate of -0.0017%, suggesting a market bias toward shorting ADA. On-chain activity is also declining, with Daily Active Addresses dropping to 21,600, highlighting reduced demand for Cardano’s network.
In summary, Cardano sits at a critical juncture. While whale accumulation and technical indicators hint at a rebound, weak fundamentals and bearish sentiment suggest otherwise. Traders should watch key support levels and on-chain trends closely before making any major moves..
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