The global Methylene Dichloride (MDC) market has experienced significant price fluctuations in recent years, influenced by various regional and global factors. In 2024, the market saw a mixed trend, with Methylene Dichloride prices varying across different regions due to supply-demand dynamics, feedstock costs, and seasonal factors.
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North America: Oversupply and Weak Demand Pressure Prices
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American MDC market faced considerable downward pressure, leading to a sharp decline in prices. A surplus of MDC, fueled by increased production at major manufacturing plants, played a pivotal role in depressing prices. This abundant supply was met with sluggish demand, especially from the downstream solvent sector, including paint and coatings. Additionally, uncompetitive export supply limited any potential for price recovery.
The USA, in particular, experienced the most significant price declines, with MDC prices dropping by 38% compared to the same quarter in 2023 and by 17% from the first quarter of 2024. By the end of Q2, prices stabilized but remained in a predominantly negative environment. The combination of oversupply, weak demand, and slow trading activity created sustained downward pressure on MDC prices, highlighting the challenging market conditions in North America during the quarter.
Asia-Pacific: Stability Amidst Supply Constraints
In the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, the MDC market exhibited notable pricing stability during Q2 2024, supported by balanced supply and demand dynamics. The stability in feedstock methanol prices helped maintain a consistent cost base for MDC production, while limited trading activity and cautious purchasing strategies—driven by oversupplies and moderate downstream demand—further anchored prices. In China, despite the overall stable sentiment, seasonal factors such as high temperatures increased refrigerant demand, though this did not result in significant price volatility. Compared to Q2 2023, MDC prices in China fell by 11%, signaling a long-term downtrend, though they rose by 4% from Q1 2024 due to temporary supply constraints and operational upticks in domestic plants. Prices remained stable throughout the quarter, with no significant differences between the first and second halves.
Europe: Seasonal Demand Drives Price Increase
In Q2 2024, the European MDC market saw an upward pricing trend. Key drivers included strong demand from downstream solvent industries, active trading, and a tighter supply environment. The rising cost of feedstock methanol also provided cost support for MDC production. Additionally, the seasonal uptick in coolant demand, driven by higher temperatures, further boosted prices. Germany, the most affected market, experienced a 2% price increase from Q1 2024, reflecting strong purchasing and higher feedstock costs. However, prices were 3% lower than in Q2 2023, indicating a more nuanced pricing environment. Seasonal demand also led to a 1% increase in prices during the first half of the quarter compared to the second half.
India: Supply Shortages and High Demand Impact Prices
In India, domestic MDC prices surged sharply in September 2024, driven by robust demand and supply constraints due to reduced production rates in the western region, impacted by heavy monsoon rains. Spot prices increased by Rs 3/kg, with current levels at Rs 38.00/kg Ex Dahej and Rs 36.50/kg Ex Kurnool, on 60-day payment terms. Bulk contract offers ranged between Rs 37.00 and Rs 38.50/kg Ex Dahej for 90-day credit terms, depending on delivery locations. In the retail market, barrel-packed MDC prices remained substantially higher, with current prices standing at Rs 43/kg Ex Dahej, Rs 45/kg Ex Ahmedabad, Rs 47.50/kg Ex Mumbai, Rs 48/kg Ex Hyderabad, and Rs 46.50/kg Ex Chennai, with 60-day credit terms. The upward trend in MDC prices was largely attributed to strong downstream demand across key sectors.
Global Outlook: Anticipated Price Fluctuations
Looking ahead to the second half of 2024 and into 2025, the MDC market is expected to face both challenges and opportunities. The upcoming festive season could drive demand in the agricultural sector, potentially pushing prices upward. However, the potential for increased production capacity might create a complex environment, with producers and consumers navigating dynamics influenced by both seasonal demand and macroeconomic conditions. Environmental regulations and supply chain disruptions are also likely to impact pricing trends, requiring stakeholders to remain agile and responsive to market changes.
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