India's total fertility rate has seen a steady decline over the past few decades. The TFR, which represents the average number of children a woman bears over her lifetime, dropped from 5.9 children per woman in 1981 to 2.2 children per woman in 2020 according to National Family Health Survey data. This substantial decline can be attributed to several factors like increased access to contraception, rising age of marriage, higher literacy rates and economic development. While rural fertility rates continue to be higher than urban rates, the gap has been narrowing with time. All Indian states have witnessed a fertility decline though some like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan still have TFRs above the replacement level of 2.1.
Increased Contraceptive Use
Widespread popularization and availability of modern contraceptive methods have played a key role in curbing India's fertility levels. The unmet need for family planning, which refers to the percentage of women wanting to space or limit childbearing but not using any method of contraception, has declined from 13.9% in 2005-06 to 12.9% in 2015-16. Use of sterilization as a family planning method remains high in India, with over 36% of currently married women relying on female sterilization. However, use of other spacing methods like IUDs, pills and condoms is also gradually increasing which is helping couples better space pregnancies. The government's family planning program has ensured affordable access to contraception even in remote areas pushing down unintended pregnancies.
Delays in Marriage and India Fertility Monitor
Higher educational attainment and opportunities for women along with a preference for smaller families have led to couples delaying marriage and childbearing. The median age at first marriage for women has risen from 19.3 years in 2005-06 to 22.3 years in 2015-16 according to NFHS estimates. A later age at marriage allows women to complete their education, become financially independent and have greater autonomy in decisions around family size. The proportion of women marrying before 18, the legal minimum age of marriage, has also declined significantly from 47% a decade ago to 27% now. Similarly, women are starting childbearing at an older age which allows for longer birth intervals and fewer lifetime pregnancies.
Urbanization and Economic Progress
Rapid economic growth and urbanization experienced by India Fertility Monitor in the recent decades have enabled improved access to healthcare, education and jobs for women. This in turn has empowered women to make informed choices regarding childbearing. Better livelihoods means higher opportunity cost of having large families while smaller living quarters in cities discourage large household sizes. Urban families tend to have fewer children due to factors like higher education levels, career-oriented lifestyles and greater financial constraints. The economic burden of educating and preparing multiple children for independent living is driving the preference towards small family sizes especially among socio-economically advanced sections of the population.
Rising Cost of Raising Children
With rising inflation and educational expenses, rearing children until they become independent has grown into a costly affair for most Indian families. Private tutoring, extracurricular activities, smartphones, international trips have become important markers of social status and child development putting pressure on household budgets. Formal schooling until at least graduation is now considered necessary to secure stable jobs adding to the economic responsibility of parents. Large families find it difficult to equally invest in all children which can compromise their future prospects in a competitive world. Parents are thus choosing to have fewer children that they can better support and provide quality upbringing and education throughout their developmental years.
Changing Mindsets and Social Norms
Norms around family size are witnessing a significant shift from past generations that valued large joint families and many children for old age security. Nuclear families have become the new social norm where intimacy, mutual understanding and individual happiness within couples and child-parent relationships are emphasized over societal expectations. Children are now perceived as responsibilities requiring long term investment rather than dependents meant to support elderly parents. Rising globalization and virtual connectivity have exposed Indians to alternate lifestyles propagated in Western societies which promote small, happy families and women's self-fulfillment over their traditional roles. This changing socialization and media influence is steering cultural mindsets to accord higher prestige to the concept of quality over quantity when it comes to children.
India's total fertility rate is projected to drop below replacement level by 2026-27 according to UN Population Division estimates denoting a historic demographic transition. While cultural factors still promote childbearing in some communities, economic development and its spin-offs of increased healthcare access, literacy, career opportunities for women as well as higher aspirations will likely accelerate this fertility decline nationwide. Promoting women's agency through policy interventions and social support programs can help sustain the gains even after replacement level fertility is reached. India is poised to reap a demographic dividend from its growing workforce if investments are made to impart 21st century skills to the youth. Overall, the shift signals India's embrace of smaller families as a sign of socio-economic progress.
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