In a significant and strongly worded statement, Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (DG ISPR), Major General Babar Iftikhar, has warned that if India violates the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), Pakistan will consider the rivers originating from Indian-administered Kashmir as its own. This bold assertion underscores Islamabad’s growing concern over what it perceives as New Delhi’s continuous attempts to exploit and alter the decades-old water-sharing agreement.
The Indus Waters Treaty: A Pillar of Regional Stability
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, is one of the most enduring agreements between India and Pakistan, despite multiple wars and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Under the treaty, India was given control over the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan was allocated the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The treaty also set forth mechanisms for information sharing, data exchange, and dispute resolution.
However, over the last decade, Pakistan has repeatedly raised alarms over India's alleged construction of hydroelectric projects and dams on the western rivers, arguing that such developments violate the terms of the treaty. India, on the other hand, maintains that it retains the right to undertake "run-of-the-river" projects that do not impede the flow of water to Pakistan.
A Heightened Warning
DG ISPR’s recent statement comes in the context of these escalating concerns. He stated unequivocally that any violation of the treaty by India would be interpreted as an aggressive move with far-reaching consequences. He further asserted that if India continues down this path, Pakistan would no longer consider the treaty valid and would instead lay claim to the six rivers that originate from the Kashmir region.
This is not the first time Pakistan has issued such warnings, but the clarity and directness of the statement indicate a hardening stance. Pakistan views water as a lifeline for its agrarian economy and fears that upstream interference by India could severely impact its agricultural output, water availability, and ultimately national security.
Strategic and Diplomatic Implications
The statement is likely to fuel tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Water has long been a potential flashpoint in South Asia, and any disruption of the Indus Waters Treaty could escalate the situation quickly. International observers have often lauded the treaty as a rare example of successful conflict resolution in the region, and its collapse would signal a dangerous shift.
Pakistan is expected to raise the issue at international forums such as the United Nations and the World Bank. In the past, Islamabad has sought arbitration through neutral experts or international courts, but outcomes have been mixed, and enforcement remains a challenge.
India’s Perspective
From India's perspective, the projects under question — such as the Kishanganga and Ratle dams — are within its rights as per the treaty. Indian authorities argue that the infrastructure is designed to generate electricity without significantly altering the water flow to Pakistan. Furthermore, New Delhi accuses Islamabad of politicizing the issue and failing to adapt to modern water management practices.
India also points out that Pakistan has rejected multiple attempts at technical consultations and delayed meetings, thereby weakening the treaty’s collaborative mechanisms. The current administration in New Delhi, known for its assertive stance, is unlikely to back down under diplomatic pressure from Pakistan.
Public and Political Response in Pakistan
The Pakistani public and media have responded strongly to the DG ISPR’s statement, with many calling for firmer action and legal recourse. There is growing consensus in Pakistan that the country must prepare for a future where water may be weaponized as a geopolitical tool.
Environmental experts in Pakistan also stress the urgency of upgrading the nation’s water storage and distribution systems, noting that reliance on a decades-old treaty alone is no longer sufficient. While political leaders from both sides of the spectrum have echoed support for DG ISPR’s stance, there is also acknowledgment that diplomacy should remain the first line of defense.
Conclusion: A Call for Dialogue or a Prelude to Conflict?
DG ISPR’s statement marks a pivotal moment in South Asia’s complex web of water politics. As climate change increases water scarcity and population growth raises demand, the strategic importance of river systems is more pronounced than ever. The Indus Waters Treaty has, for over 60 years, provided a framework for peaceful cooperation. However, its durability now faces a severe test.
For long-term regional stability, both India and Pakistan must prioritize dialogue and diplomacy over confrontation. Without mutual trust and adherence to international norms, even a time-tested treaty like the Indus Waters Treaty may not survive the pressures of modern geopolitics.
Reference: بھارت نے سندھ طاس معاہدے کی خلاف ورزی کی تو کشمیر کے چھ دریا پاکستان کے ہوں گے: ڈی جی آئی ایس پی آر
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